Horizon12 primary lockup
Value-at-Risk Calculator

Free · No sign-up · Three sliders

What share of your growth target actually lands?

Every leadership team sets a target and builds a plan to hit it. Then the year happens. Priorities get re-argued, initiatives stall, and the ones that survive ship late enough to miss their window.

Move the sliders below. We’ll put a number on that gap — then show how little of it Horizon12 would need to recover to pay for itself.

— is all Horizon12 needs to recover to pay for itself
— at risk over three years
Example figures — move any slider to use your own

Your numbers

Nothing is sent anywhere. Everything runs in your browser.

$20M

Near enough is fine.

$250K$10M$1B

15%

What the plan is supposed to deliver — new revenue, margin, or cost taken out.

1%30%60%

40%

The portion abandoned, quietly deprioritised, or shipped too late to count.

0%40%80%
For reference: Harvard Business Review found companies typically realise only about 60% of their strategy’s potential value — a gap of roughly 40%.
Where that figure comes from Mankins & Steele, Turning Great Strategy into Great Performance, Harvard Business Review, July–August 2005. HBR’s own summary says “about 60%”; the study is widely quoted as 63% realised. It is a 2005 study across a sample of large companies — a starting point for your own estimate, not a finding about your business. Your own answer is the one that matters here.
People on your leadership team

Sets your Strategy Blueprint pricing tier. Nothing else.

5
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What’s at stake

Based entirely on the figures you set above.

Horizon12 pays for itself if it recovers
—
Your strategic ambition
—
At risk each year
—
If Horizon12 recovers some of it three scenarios
Value recovered and net return at three illustrative recovery rates over 36 months
Recovery rate Value recovered Net of all fees Return

These are scenarios you choose between, not forecasts. Horizon12 does not claim a recovery rate — the only number above that isn’t arithmetic on your inputs is the one you pick.

What it costs —
Horizon12 products, recommended timeline and fees over 36 months
Operator Product Recommended timeline Horizon12 fee
Strategy BlueprintMonth 1—
Guided RolloutMonths 2–7—
Self-ServeMonths 8–36—
Blueprint refreshMonths 13 & 25—
Three-year total36 months—
Refine: late isn’t the same as never usually lowers the result

A six-month slip costs half a year of that value, not all of it. Separating the two is more accurate and more conservative.

How this is calculated and where the judgement calls are
  • Your ambition and the value at risk are plain arithmetic on the figures you set. Nothing is assumed.
  • The share that doesn’t land is your estimate. It starts at 40% only as a reference point from a 2005 HBR study. It is the most load-bearing number here — move that slider and watch everything change.
  • The break-even figure claims nothing. It is the Horizon12 fee divided by the value at risk. Horizon12 does not promise to recover any particular share; the question is whether recovering that much is plausible to you.
  • Recovered value is not cash in the bank. An initiative that lands still has to be delivered, sold and collected. This measures strategic value protected, not profit realised.
  • Fees are current as of this page’s publication and are confirmed on a call before anything is signed.
Want this in writing?

We’ll send these figures back to you and follow up. Nothing is transmitted unless you fill this in, tick the box, and press send.

Prefer to just email us? hello@horizon12.co — or copy the address: hello@horizon12.co

The link stores the figures you set, so you can revisit them or send them to a colleague. Your email address is never included.

Why the gap exists

Strategy doesn’t fail in the room where it’s written. It fails in the eleven months afterwards, when nothing connects the plan to what anyone actually does on a Tuesday.

Closing it takes a mechanism, not resolve: Hoshin Kanri’s X-Matrix cascades initiatives into quarterly objectives, and lean/PDCA methods turn those into a running weekly backlog. That cascade — Strategy → Goals → Weekly Ops — is what the numbers above are measured against, and it is why the horizon here is a rolling three years, or twelve quarters.

Find out which part of your plan is most likely to go missing.

A Strategy Blueprint turns the target into a prioritized, executable plan — with a cascade behind it so it survives contact with the year.

Or email hello@horizon12.co